UEFA Conference League • Thursday, April 16, 2026 at 04:45 PM

Win Probability: 40%
Thursday, April 16, 2026 at 04:45 PM
2-2
• AI Prediction
Draw
Medium confidence04:45 PM

Win Probability: 30%
Last Meeting
2026-04-09 • 3-0
Home WinDraw
Match Result
2-2
Correct Score
Yes
Both Teams To Score
Under 2.5 Goals
Total Goals
Draw (X) at 3.74, as Shakhtar do not need to win the match to advance and can focus on managing the game. Both Teams to Score: Yes at 1.61, given AZ's need to attack and Shakhtar's proven scoring ability on the counter. Over 3.5 goals at 2.68, reflecting the potential for an open, high-scoring affair as AZ chases the tie.
AZ Alkmaar -1.5 Asian Handicap. Overcoming a first-leg 3-0 loss is rare, and winning by a multi-goal margin is a tall order against an in-form Shakhtar. Correct Score of 3-0 to AZ Alkmaar. While this would level the tie, the odds are long, and Shakhtar's solid defense makes it highly improbable.
AZ Alkmaar faces a monumental task, needing to overturn a three-goal deficit from the first leg. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with significant wins interspersed with heavy defeats. Currently positioned in the top six of the Eredivisie, their focus will be split between domestic European qualification and this seemingly insurmountable continental challenge. The pressure is entirely on them to force the game, which could either lead to a heroic comeback or leave them defensively exposed.
Expect AZ to adopt an aggressive, high-pressing strategy from the opening whistle. They have no choice but to push for an early goal to unsettle Shakhtar. This will likely involve a high defensive line and committing numerous players forward in attack. Their success will hinge on their ability to create and convert chances while managing the significant risk of Shakhtar's counter-attacks. Set-pieces could be a crucial avenue for them to apply pressure.
Shakhtar Donetsk arrives in the Netherlands in a commanding position, holding a 3-0 aggregate lead. They are in excellent form, leading the Ukrainian Premier League and having won their last five matches, including the dominant first-leg performance. Their morale is high, and they carry the tactical advantage of not needing to chase a result. They can afford to be patient, absorb pressure, and exploit any openings on the break.
Shakhtar will likely set up in a compact, disciplined defensive shape, aiming to frustrate AZ and deny them space in the final third. Their game plan will revolve around soaking up pressure and launching swift counter-attacks, utilizing the pace of their wingers and forwards. With a comfortable lead, they can play with patience and intelligence, picking their moments to strike and potentially kill the tie with an away goal.