AI Match Analysis & Predictions

UEFA Conference League • Thursday, April 16, 2026 at 07:00 PM

Fiorentina
Fiorentina

Win Probability: 40%

Thursday, April 16, 2026 at 07:00 PM

2-1

• AI Prediction

Fiorentina Win

Medium confidence

07:00 PM

Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace

Win Probability: 35%

Head-to-Head Statistics

Fiorentina Wins0
Draws0
Crystal Palace Wins1

Last Meeting

2026-04-093-0

Home Win

Predictions

Fiorentina Win

Match Result

Medium2.631

2-1

Correct Score

Medium

Yes

Both Teams To Score

Medium1.727

Under 2.5 Goals

Total Goals

Medium1.852

AI Match Analysis

Fiorentina faces a monumental task to overturn a 3-0 first-leg deficit against an in-form Crystal Palace. While the Italian side is favored to win this home leg, their need to attack relentlessly could play into the hands of a defensively solid and dangerous counter-attacking Crystal Palace team. We anticipate an open match with goals from both sides, but ultimately see Fiorentina falling short of the aggregate score needed to advance.

Key Betting Insights

Value Bets

Both teams to score (BTTS) - Yes: Fiorentina must attack and are likely to score at home, but their aggressive posture could leave them open at the back for a confident Crystal Palace side to exploit. Over 2.5 goals: Fiorentina's need for goals and Crystal Palace's counter-attacking threat could lead to an open and high-scoring affair.

Risky Bets

Fiorentina to win by a large margin (e.g., -1.5 Asian Handicap): Overturning a 3-0 deficit is a monumental task, and while they might win the match, a win by two or more goals is a significant risk given Crystal Palace's current form. Correct score of 3-0 to Fiorentina: While this would be the dream scenario for the home side, the probability of this exact scoreline is low against a defensively solid Crystal Palace.

Fiorentina Overview

Overview

Fiorentina comes into this second leg with a significant 3-0 deficit. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with a mix of wins, a draw, and a heavy loss in the first leg. In Serie A, they are in the bottom half of the table. Their attack has shown some potency in recent games, but the defense was exposed against Crystal Palace. They will need a monumental effort to turn this tie around at home.

Tactical Notes

Fiorentina will likely have to adopt a very aggressive, attacking approach from the outset to have any chance of overturning the three-goal deficit. This could leave them vulnerable to counter-attacks. They will need to dominate possession and create numerous scoring opportunities while being wary of Crystal Palace's pace on the break. Key players like Fagioli and Harrison will need to be at their creative best.

Key Players

Nicolò FagioliAlbert GudmundssonJack HarrisonRobin Gosens

Injuries

Dodô: Thigh injuryRolando Mandragora: Calf injuryMoise Kean: Shin injuryTariq Lamptey: Knee injuryManor Solomon: Thigh injuryFabiano Parisi: Knock injuryNiccolo Fortini: Muscle injury

Crystal Palace Overview

Overview

Crystal Palace holds a commanding 3-0 lead from the first leg and is in excellent form, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions. They have been solid defensively, keeping clean sheets in their recent home games. Their attack has been clinical, as demonstrated in the first leg. They are in a strong position to advance to the next round.

Tactical Notes

With a three-goal advantage, Crystal Palace can afford to play a more conservative, counter-attacking game. They will likely look to absorb pressure and hit Fiorentina on the break with the speed of Sarr and the finishing of Mateta. Their organized defense will aim to frustrate the home side and protect their substantial lead. They will be content to cede possession and focus on maintaining their defensive shape.

Key Players

Jean-Philippe MatetaIsmaïla SarrAdam WhartonTyrick Mitchell

Injuries

Eddie Nketiah: Hamstring injuryCheick Doucouré: Muscle injuryEvann Guessand: Knock

Last 5 Matches – Fiorentina

Last 5 Matches

  • LCrystal Palace0-32026-04-09
  • WHellas Verona1-02026-04-04
  • DInternazionale Milano1-12026-03-22
  • WRakow Czestochowa2-12026-03-19
  • WCremonese4-12026-03-16

Last 5 Matches – Crystal Palace

Last 5 Matches

  • WFiorentina3-02026-04-09
  • WAEK Larnaca2-12026-03-19
  • DLeeds United0-02026-03-15
  • DAEK Larnaca0-02026-03-12
  • WTottenham Hotspur3-12026-03-05